DSV Global Market update – January 2026

Key highlights from January 2026 global freight market update, are summarized below for your reference.

LOCAL UPDATE

Israel is closely monitoring the crisis in Iran and its potential implications for the supply chain.

Air Freight

• International airlines are closely monitoring the evolving crisis between the United States and Iran and its potential impact on operations to and from Israel.
•  The Lufthansa Group has temporarily suspended its overnight flights due to the current situation and is offering alternative solutions for cargo flights operated during daytime hours.
•  With the upcoming Chinese New Year, an increase in advance bookings for both imports to and exports from Israel has been observed, which may impact capacity availability and pricing over the coming month.
•  We are seeing dynamic shifts in cargo destinations as a result of global operational adjustments following the tariff crisis with the United States.
•  To view the list of airlines operating to/from Israel – click here 👉

Ocean Freight

• Over recent months, major seaports in Northern Europe, as well as transshipment hubs (such as Gioia Tauro, Piraeus, and others), have been facing significant operational challenges affecting the supply chain, due to adverse weather conditions, strikes, and industrial actions. This situation is leading to vessel delays, port congestion, reduced productivity across the European logistics network, and schedule changes on services to and from Israel.

We continue to closely monitor the situation, and our teams are available to support you with appropriate solutions
GLOBAL UPDATE 

🔹Global Economy

• UN predicts world economic growth to slip to 2.7% in 2026: Global economic growth is forecast to decline to 2.7% in 2026 from 2.8% last year before increasing to 2.9% in 2027.
• US inflation: US inflation unexpectedly falls to 2.7%. The market's positive reaction is fragile. With unreliable data, the Fed has no clarity and is unlikely to pursue further rate cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% range.
• China's Record Trade Surplus with Europe Forces a Policy Reckoning: This trend reflects years of declining competitiveness for European products as the continent risks technological and industrial irrelevance. The new tariffs are defensive reaction to this structural decline.
• Europe – The EV Transition Hits the Brakes: The EU is committed to a hard 'zero emissions' mandate for all new cars from 2035, forcing a complete and rapid transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
• US Supreme Court delays tariff decision: Legality of Trump’s global tariffs under IEEPA, final decision will come in the coming weeks.
• China to abolish solar export tax rebates in April: China will eliminate value-added tax (VAT) export rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026, according to a joint notice released on Jan. 9 by the Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China and the State Taxation Administration.
• Bridging two blocs – The EU-Mercosur Partnership & Trade agreements: The EU has approved the signature of both the EU‑Mercosur Partnership Agreement (EMPA) and its Interim Trade Agreement (iTA), marking a major step forward in relations with Mercosur countries—Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
• Geopolitical risk assessment: While Greenland is a low risk level, Venezuela and Iran are in High and Very High-risk level with airfreight restrictions and very limited ocean freight operations.

🔹Ocean Freight
Early 2026 market momentum is weakening as freight rates fall across key routes. While Red Sea diversions continue to absorb significant capacity (6.1% of the global fleet), this is proving insufficient to counter signs of softening demand and pressure on carrier earnings. CMA-CGM and now Maersk are testing transit through the red sea.

🔹Air Freight
The market is showing early signs of recovery, with demand gaining upward momentum across key trade lanes. Inquiry levels have increased notably, driven by planning for Weeks 5–6 and the expected Chinese New Year (Feb 15–23) order rush. These factors, combined with typical month‑end activity, are set to accelerate booking volumes in the coming weeks.

🔹Ocean freight highlights

• The defining wildcard – The Suez Conundrum: The real barrier is not attacks, its insurance: War risk insurance premium is 0.5% and the pre-crisis rate was 0.02 %.
• Potential carrier strategies to return to Suez canal: A return to the Suez Canal will cause ‘multiple months of reshuffling, disruption, and congestion,’ with stable services not in place until mid-2026 in a best-case scenario, this most likely will start after Chinese New Year.
• Maersk completed a second transit test through the red sea: In the second week of January, Maersk completed a second transit through the Bab al Mandeb strait.
• CMA-CGM – The first carrier “testing the waters” of the Red Sea: New INDAMEX service (India to US) via Suez.
• December U.S. Container Imports Post Small Month-over-Month Increase: Closing 2025 Just Under 2024 (-0,4%), Top carriers Drive Expansion, with several orderbook exceeding 40% of their current fleet.
• Competition Intensifies on the Far East – West Coast North America.
• Premier Alliance (HMM, ONE, Yang Ming) confirms network expansion: Two new transpacific services and a new one from Asia to Europe.
• EU ETS: Full emission coverage begins in 2026, this will increase cost and surcharges for ocean carriers and customers with can from and to the European Union countries.

🔹Airfreight highlights

• Capacity and Rates: Global international air cargo capacity increased by 6.4% (vs. 2024) between November 24th and December 14th.
• International air cargo capacity maintains momentum ahead of Christmas, growing by +1.3% vs. previous 3 weeks.
• The recent increase in global freighter cargo capacity is reflected in the high utilization of large freighters.
• This year, Glasgow Prestwick airport has notably grown its freighter volumes (+18k) via increased connectivity with Asia Pacific Winter schedules for Asia Pacific.
• The winner of 2025: Vietnam unprecedented Air Trade Expansion in all major markets.
• The MD11 Grounding ripple effect: This has a limited direct impact on international 3PLs, as 70% of MD11 freighter capacity was deployed on the domestic US market. To cover the domestic shortfall, integrators are now tapping into the International charter networks removing some international capacity.