DSV Global Market update – December 2025

Dear Customers,

Please find below the global freight market update for December 2025.
We highly recommend following and keeping up to date with these market trends, and using this information to share and highlight the current challenges to the decision-makers in your company.

We would also like to take this opportunity to wish you all a successful business year.

LOCAL UPDATE

Air Freight

Towards the end of the business year and due to increased demand ahead of Christmas and New Year, cargo terminals in Israel (Maman and Swissport) are experiencing significant congestion and high cargo volumes for both export and import. Please find a link to terminal updates.

Ocean Freight

Over the past months, ocean services from Europe to Israel have been facing major operational challenges, including sailing delays, vessel congestion, and reduced efficiency in the European logistics network.
Weather conditions, strikes, and labor disruptions are impacting the supply chain and causing schedule changes.
Additionally, ongoing congestion and severe weather conditions at key transshipment ports (such as Gioia Tauro, Piraeus, and others) add to the operational complexity.

GLOBAL UPDATE

Global Economy
– US Federal Reserve: Approved a -0.25% rate cut amid internal disagreement, signalling uncertainty about future reductions.
– US tariffs: Major industries face high product-specific tariffs (e.g., 50% on steel and aluminium). A Supreme Court ruling expected in December could overturn emergency tariffs, potentially leading to billions in refunds and trade policy complications.
– Thailand and Cambodia Renewed hostilities along the contested border have closed land crossings, forcing Cambodian exports to reroute from Thai deep-sea ports like Laem Chabang.
– Chinese New Year 2026: Starting February 17, factory shutdowns and reduced production from late January to mid-March will disrupt global supply chains, causing freight rate spikes and port congestion.
– EU Sustainability Deal: EU leaders reached a diluted agreement on the Omnibus I package, removing key ESG accountability tools but retaining core value-chain due diligence requirements.
 
Ocean Freight
Strong demand and high utilization on Asia-Europe (FEWB) lanes ahead of 2026 EU carbon regulations. US East Coast rates remain under pressure due to soft demand and excess capacity.
 
Air Freight
Global international air cargo capacity grew by 6.5% YoY, driving spot rates down across major markets despite resilient demand fueled by AI investments and e-commerce.
 
Ocean freight highlights
– U.S. container import volumes down 7.8% year-over-year. Year-to-date volumes are now just 0.1% higher than the same period in 2024, with the growth margin shrinking from nearly 10% in January to near zero by November.
–  US Sourcing diversification Tariffs from “China + 1” to a “China plus many” strategy
– 2025 will pass the orderbook record of 2023, reaching a record high of 11.5m TEU
– CMA-CGM: The first carrier “testing the waters” of the Red Sea: New INDAMEX service (India to US) via Suez
– After almost one year of the new shipping alliance “Gemini” we can conclude that has delivered on better reliability, current market stays on 61% on time while Gemini is near 74.1%
– ZIM potential take over by Hapag-Lloyd, While the Hapag-Lloyd / ZIM combination would not alter the top 10 carriers, it would allow Hapag-Lloyd (currently 5th) to significantly narrow the capacity gap with the Top 4 carriers (COSCO, CMA-CGM, Maersk and MSC)
 
Airfreight highlights
– Capacity and Rates: Global international air cargo capacity increased by 6.5% compared to 2024, resulting in spot rates declining year-over-year on all major global markets
– Demand Drivers: Demand remains resilient, driven strongly by AI-related investments (e.g., Taiwan export growth up 37% YoY due to data center products) and persistent e-commerce activity.
– Outlook: A potential shift from air back to ocean freight is expected in 2026 as ocean service levels potentially improve and pressure eases from tariff-related frontloading
– Taiwan has been a star performer this year, driven by surging demand on data center related products and computers
– Winter schedules for Asia Pacific indicate widebody belly capacity to surpass 2024 levels by +14%