DSV Global Market update – March 2026

,Dear Customers

We are pleased to present the DSV Global Market Update for March 2026, which includes an up‑to‑date overview of the impact of the Middle East crisis on air and ocean freight operations, alongside macroeconomic trends, energy price volatility, and direct effects on supply chains.

LOCAL UPDATE

Click here to access the daily bulletin sent to DSV customers – 15/03/2026

Israel is closely monitoring the crisis in Iran and its potential implications for the supply chain.

DSV Israel

GLOBAL UPDATE  

Middle East Situation
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz – triggered by the US/IL–IR conflict – is the single largest disruptive factor across both ocean and airfreight. Key operational facts:

• 130 containerships (443,550 TEU) are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf; 61 vessels (341,560 TEU) are effectively removed from global circulation, impacting 1.9% of the world fleet.
• Major carriers (MSC, CMA CGM, Emirates Shipping) have declared "End of Voyage" for Arabian Gulf-bound cargo, discharging at alternative ports.
• Salalah (Oman) port operations remain suspended following drone strikes.
• A US naval convoy system has been proposed but not yet launched; Iran's asymmetric threat (mines, drones, fast-attack craft) continues to block any near-term resolution.
• The US has launched a $20B reinsurance facility to facilitate Gulf shipping, but insurance terms remain the primary gating factor for transit decisions.
• Six vessels attacked in Gulf, two of them are container vessels from ONE and Hapag-Lloyd, as war puts merchant ships on front lines
• Brent crude is approaching $100/barrel
• Airfreight, operationally disrupted but partially recovering at key Gulf hubs. Dubai (AUH/DXB) is back to ~50% of normal capacity; Doha, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Sharjah remain near zero
• Global air capacity is 8% below the 2026 average.
• The majority of Asia–Europe flights are now routed through a narrow 150 km corridor over Azerbaijan, adding cost and transit time. Jet fuel has spiked to multi-year highs (+40%), driving up Fuel Surcharges across all corridors.

🔹Global Economy

• USTR launches investigations against 60+ countries under Section 301. Goal: replace IEEPA tariffs with legally robust ones. Treasury Sec. Bessent: "Tariff rates will be back to old levels within 5 months".
• Oil Extends Rally After International Energy Agency Warns of Record Disruption Brent crude futures approached $100 a barrel again.

🔹Ocean Freight

• The Hormuz closure has sent the Shanghai Container Freight Index up +11.7% Week on Week, with rates rising across all major lanes, bunker surcharges piling on, and global port congestion at elevated levels.

🔹Air Freight

• Middle East airspace disruptions have cut ~8% of global capacity, jet fuel has spiked +40%, and sharp rate increases are rippling across Asia–Europe and ISC westbound corridors.

🔹Ocean freight highlights

• SCFI increases by +11.7% in one week, waiting for announced increases in coming weeks
• February U.S. Container Imports Post Seasonal Decline -9,7% as Geopolitical Risks Intensify
  CK Hutchison Seeks $2B in Arbitration Over Panama Canal Port Seizure

🔹Airfreight highlights

• C Manufacturing momentum (PMI 51.9) supports firmer airfreight demand into 2026, while elevated jet fuel linked to Middle East disruptions sustains cost pressure – expect a slightly tighter pricing environment where selective capacity retains value
• Fuel and routing volatility tied to the Middle East can widen the demand–capacity gap by raising operating costs and reducing effective payloads.
• The U.S. is applying Section 122 tariffs up to 15% for 150 days. Coverage reaches ~49% of imports after exemptions. Net effect: higher import costs, timing uncertainty, and renewed incentives to pull shipments forward or re‑route – all of which are material for Airfreight flows and pricing.
• Middle East, airlines report temporary suspensions, phased resumptions, and backlog management at key hubs; schedule volatility and payload trade‑offs are likely in near term.