DSV Global Market update – July 2025

דגשים כלליים:

• אי יציבות גיאופוליטית: המצב במזרח התיכון מתוח. מתקפות החות'ים בים האדום הן החמורות ביותר מאז נובמבר ומעלות חשש לשיבוש נתיבי סחר.
• מכסים ארה"ב–סין:  ההקפאה בת 90 הימים צפויה להסתיים ב־13 באוגוסט. מוצע מסגרת חדשה 55% מכס ייבוא מסין לארה"ב ו־10% בכיוון ההפוך (טרם אושר סופית).
• הסלמה בסכסוכי סחר:   ארה"ב מאיימת להטיל מכסים של 30% על יבוא ממקסיקו והאיחוד האירופי החל מ־1 באוגוסט.
• אינפלציה בגוש היורו: ירדה ל־1.9%, מה שמגביר את הסיכוי להפחתות ריבית נוספות על ידי הבנק המרכזי האירופי.
• כלכלת סין:  התמ"ג צמח ב־5.2% ברבעון השני לעומת התקופה המקבילה אשתקד, האטה קלה לעומת הרבעון הראשון (5.4%).

• Geopolitical Instability: The Middle East remains volatile. The recent Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping mark the most complex strike since November, raising concerns over global trade routes.
• US-China Tariffs: The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is set to end on August 13th, with a proposed framework of 55% tariffs from China to the US and 10% in the opposite direction. Final approval is pending.
• Global Trade Tensions: The U.S. has threatened 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the EU, effective August 1st, further escalating trade uncertainty.
• Eurozone Inflation: Inflation has dropped below target to 1.9%, increasing the likelihood of further ECB rate cuts.
• China said its gross domestic product expanded 5.2% in the second quarter of 2025 compared with a year earlier, slowing a touch from the 5.4% pace set in the first three months of the year

Ocean Freight

Rates on the China–US West Coast have declined due to added capacity. Other trades remain tight, but further rate hikes are unlikely in the short term.

Air Freight

Global air cargo capacity rose +3% YoY, with strong growth on Europe–Asia lanes. Vietnam–US air trade is up 81%, reinforcing Vietnam’s role as a key logistics hub.

Ocean freight highlights:

• Panama Canal maintains full draft through dry Season
• Vietnam and India set to be key beneficiaries of Trump tariffs, The new US import tariffs that are set to imposed from 1 August will not have any detrimental impact on volumes from Vietnam and India as Transpacific container cargo volumes continues to switch away from China to alternative origins
• June U.S. Container Imports Show Modest Rebound, but China Volumes Remain Depressed, however booking container data shows a recovery to record levels for arrivals on July and August.
• Asia – North America capacity injection is reversed, shipping lines removed 23% of the planned capacity injection on Asia-NAWC, in response to importer suddenly reversing their position away from a sharp front-loading of Chinese cargo.
• Global Schedule Reliability at 65,8%: In May 2025, schedule reliability recorded a sharp 7.4 .percentage point improvement M/M and reached 65.8%. This is the highest figure recorded since November 2023.

Airfreight highlights:

• Geopolitical tensions and tariff changes (especially between the US and China) are significantly impacting airfreight flows.
• Capacity growth: Airline freighter capacity drives +3% growth in total international air cargo capacity over the past two weeks.
• Strong growth in exports from Vietnam, Taiwan, and Malaysia to Europe and the US., Spot rates are rising, especially ex-Singapore (+10% WoW) and ex-Taiwan to Europe (+9% WoW).
• Europe to Mexico rates have increased 30%
• Double hit China to US exports incurred because of tariffs and the ending of de minimis exemptions